(Yuting Zhang) SMM Analysis: Competitive Landscape and Hot Topics in China's Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Industry [SMM Aluminum Industry Conference]

On April 16, at the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo—Aluminum Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil Industry Development Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., and co-organized by Zhongyifeng Jinyi (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Lezhi County Qianrun Investment Service Co., Ltd., Zhang Yuting, Senior Manager of SMM Consulting Division, provided a brief analysis of the competitive landscape and hot topics in China's aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil industry. The Rise of New Energy: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Aluminum Plate/Sheet Industry Driven by the development of new energy, future consumption of aluminum plate/sheet is expected to grow, while frequent global trade frictions pose challenges. The rise of new energy presents both challenges and opportunities for the aluminum plate/sheet industry. Key Points: According to preliminary SMM statistics, China's aluminum plate/sheet production increased from 10.3 million mt in 2017 to over 13.4 million mt in 2024. In recent years, China's aluminum plate/sheet production has continued to rise significantly. This trend is not accidental; it reflects the country's robust economic development and strong demand for basic materials, marking a new stage of development for China's aluminum plate/sheet industry. Key Points: According to SMM survey statistics, there are currently 30 relatively clear aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil projects under construction nationwide, with a total designed capacity of over 6 million mt, and several more projects yet to be confirmed. By product, battery foil, aluminum plate/sheet for new energy, and brazing materials are the main projects for expansion. By region, the under-construction capacity is mostly concentrated in major aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil production provinces such as Yunnan and Jiangsu. According to SMM survey statistics, there are currently 30 relatively clear aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil projects under construction nationwide, with a total designed capacity of 4.71 million mt, and several more projects yet to be confirmed. By product, battery foil and secondary aluminum plate/sheet have become the main new projects. Among the 30 projects, 13 are related to battery foil, with a total designed capacity of 1.1 million mt. Several companies have already laid out plans for secondary aluminum plate/sheet, with related projects having a total designed capacity of 1.57 million mt. By commissioning time, almost all the aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil projects under construction are expected to be completed before 2025, with 2024 being the most concentrated year, as over 2.4 million mt of new capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2024. By enterprise scale, the under-construction capacity is almost entirely owned by large enterprises. The concentration of capacity in the aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil industry is gradually increasing. By region, the under-construction capacity is mostly concentrated in major aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil production provinces such as Henan, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. New aluminum plate/sheet projects are relatively concentrated in Henan, while new aluminum foil projects are relatively concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Key Points: The terminal structure continues to adjust. Driven by plastic restriction policies and lightweighting policies, the proportion of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products used in packaging and transportation has increased. Although profit margins may shrink in recent years, production can still grow against the trend, with representative products such as automotive sheet and battery foil. Meanwhile, the proportion of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products with relatively low added value, such as those used in industrial machinery and architectural decoration, is expected to continue to decline. Packaging materials such as can stock and food packaging foil have consistently accounted for the largest share among the many terminals of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil in recent years, with a share of 35%-45%; the three major terminals of mechanical equipment, construction, and transportation each account for about 20%. After three consecutive years of growth, packaging materials experienced negative growth in 2023. The proportion of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products used in transportation continues to rise, with representative products such as automotive sheet and brazing materials. Driven by the "ensure timely delivery of housing projects" policy, the proportion of aluminum plate/sheet products used in construction increased in 2023, but the overall trend will continue to decline. The requirements for carbon emissions of aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil products used in packaging and transportation are particularly evident, and other fields may also propose similar carbon reduction requirements in the future. Key Points: China's cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis will suppress the export enthusiasm of domestic enterprises in the short term but will benefit the development of high-value-added product exports in the medium and long term. The cancellation involves 24 aluminum-related codes, covering almost all major domestic aluminum semis products such as aluminum extrusion, aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil, and aluminum bar and rod. Impact and Analysis: For many years, due to policy incentives and the product advantages of Chinese aluminum semis, Chinese aluminum semis have maintained a competitive advantage of being high-quality and low-cost in overseas markets. In the short term, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis may increase the export costs of aluminum semis export enterprises to some extent, suppressing the export enthusiasm of Chinese aluminum semis processing enterprises, and the aluminum processing industry may face a "pain period" lasting about half a year. However, the industry's major reshuffle is also a rare new opportunity. In the medium and long term, as an important global exporter of aluminum semis, there is a certain gap in the supply and demand of overseas aluminum semis. In the absence of corresponding supply increments overseas, the phased reduction in China's aluminum semis exports and the increase in export costs can both push up overseas aluminum prices, widening the price spread between domestic and overseas markets. Without considering exchange rates, the export profits of domestic aluminum semis will rebound, regaining related advantages, thereby restoring China's aluminum semis exports in the medium and long term. In addition, the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis does not involve high-value-added aluminum products, which will also stimulate domestic aluminum export enterprises to develop high-value-added product exports. Key Points: The US policy of imposing a 25% tariff on all aluminum and steel imports to the US has limited impact on China's aluminum product exports but may increase spot premiums in the US, further raising procurement costs for US domestic enterprises. Additionally, it is necessary to be vigilant about changes in US domestic consumption demand and pay attention to demand trends in other overseas regions. Impact and Analysis: The US imposition of hefty tariffs has led to a surge in domestic aluminum prices in the US, with the price spread between US and European aluminum reaching a historical high. At the same time, the export costs of China's aluminum products have increased, putting some pressure on the SHFE aluminum market. Before the official implementation of the tariffs, market sentiment was cautious, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. To cope with long-term trade frictions, China has promoted the diversified development of aluminum product exports and accelerated the transformation to high-value-added products by adjusting export tax rebate policies and implementing countermeasures, shifting the industry from an export-oriented model to one that balances domestic and foreign demand. Although short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, the fundamental supply and demand of the global aluminum market will dominate price trends in the medium and long term. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total aluminum semis exports to the US in 2024 were around 257,000 mt, up 7% YoY, while China's total exports in 2024 were 6.303 million mt, up 19.2% YoY. In terms of proportion, China's direct exports to the US accounted for only about 4.1% of the total. Therefore, the volume of China's direct exports of aluminum semis to the US is limited, and the impact on China's overall exports for the year is minimal. Compared to aluminum semis, the influence of aluminum products exported to the US on China's overall exports has increased. However, from a global demand perspective, there are still many options outside the US, and the combination of high-quality and low-cost Chinese products with the price spread advantage between domestic and overseas markets maintains China's strong competitiveness in capacity. SMM has learned that domestic enterprises have not provided much negative feedback on this policy, stating that short-term order volumes may slightly decline due to the need to renegotiate processing fees and other changes in taxation. However, in the long term, the US's own capacity is difficult to meet its demand, and new capacity takes time to build. The import demand for Chinese aluminum products and those from other regions remains, which may ultimately lead to higher aluminum prices in the US and increased procurement costs for US terminals. In terms of proportion, China's direct exports of aluminum semis to Mexico and Canada accounted for 14.06% in 2024. Trump stated that there are "no exceptions or exemptions" for the 25% tariff, and as major aluminum semis suppliers, Canada and Mexico are significantly affected. The imposition of tariffs will likely lead to higher costs for US terminals, potentially causing a decline in US demand for aluminum, weakening exports from Canada and Mexico, and indirectly affecting demand for Chinese aluminum semis. Click to view the special report on the AICE 2025 SMM (20th) Aluminum Industry Conference and Aluminum Industry Expo.